Loss Aversion

Did you choose Option A for the dilemma in the last post? When the question was put to a group of doctors, the answers were as follows:

Option A: 72%
Option B: 28%

It seems logical. Save some lives rather than risk the loss of all of them. But then the researchers offered the same doctors this choice:

The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows: If program C is adopted, 400 people will die. If program D is adopted, there is a one-third probability that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die. Which of the two programs would you favor?

This time the answers were reversed

Option C: 22%
Option D: 78%

This seems crazy. The dilemma is essentially the same - only the wording has been changed. So why the reversal?

The key lies in the direct reference to 'deaths'. Rather than accept limited loss the doctors become willing to risk everything.

Psychologists believe that this indicates what they call 'loss aversion'. Because we hat the idea of losing something we make irrational decisions to protect what we have. For example shareholders will often refuse to sell a falling share because they don't want to accept certain loss.

Perhaps Homer Simpson was speaking for us all when he said, 'It is not okay to lose!

For more on this and other fascinating stuff on how our brains work go to Jonah Lehrer's http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/">The Frontal Cortex

Did you choose an option for the dilemma in the last post? Did you choose option A? When the question was put to a group of doctors, the answers were as follows:

Option A: 72%
Option B: 28%

It seems logical. Save some lives rather than risk the loss of all of them. But then the researchers offered the same doctors this choice:

The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows: If program C is adopted, 400 people will die. If program D is adopted, there is a one-third probability that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die. Which of the two programs would you favor?

This time the answers were reversed

Option C: 22%
Option D: 78%

This seems crazy. The dilemma is essentially the same - only the wording has been changed. So why the reversal?

The key lies in the direct reference to 'deaths'. Rather than accept limited loss the doctors become willing to risk everything.

Psychologists believe that this indicates what they call 'loss aversion'. Because we hat the idea of losing something we make irrational decisions to protect what we have. For example shareholders will often refuse to sell a falling share because they don't want to accept certain loss.

Perhaps Homer Simpson was speaking for us all when he said, 'It is not okay to lose!

For more on this and other fascinating stuff on how our brains work go to http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/

Doctor's Dilemma

Here’s a dilemma for you from the psychologists, Tversky and Kahneman. They asked the following to a group of doctors

The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease. It is expected to kill 600 people.

Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed.

If program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.

If program B is adopted, there is a one third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved.

Which of the two programs would you favor?

What do you think? I'll post the survey findings later today.

Oscars

I love cinema and go when I can so I've managed to catch quite a few of this years nominations for best film. Here's my verdict on those I've seen:

District 9 - original but not much fun from my point of view. The alien invaders are convincingly grim and grubby but why do I want to spend two hours in their depressing company? 6/10
An Education - a slight disappointment. Nice period detail but ponderous and I was not quite as won over by the central performance. The problem for me is that none of the main characters is sympathetic and all the action seems telegraphed. Then again I have read the original Lynne Barber account which is more interesting in my view 6.5
The Hurt Locker - heard good reports
Inglorious Bastards - a mess. Good opening but the following two+ hours are violent and incoherent 3/10
Precious - haven't seen it but popular amongst my colleagues.
A Serious Man - Excellent. Cohn brothers move to a new level. Curiously, the weakest part of the film is the opening - thought we were in for a long dreary tale about East European peasants. 9/10
Up - Animation is a hard sell for me but this really is a bravura performance. 8/10
Up In The Air - looks great in the trailers and will try and see. Hope George C manages to control that head tilting thing he employs at ever opportunity
Avatar - haven't seen it but don't fancy either the glasses or the virtual world. My wife says its 'the worst film I've ever seen' and she likes sci-fi.

I've prepared a themed page (with slideshow) about the first meeting between John Lennon & Paul McCartney here: http://www.esllistening.org/beatles/beatles/johnmeetspaul.html

For younger age groups, try this page:
http://younglearners.eslreading.org/songs/beatles/beatles/yellowsubmarine.html

New materials for teens/young adult

1.Fred and Rita: is a series of short themed dialogues I originally wrote for the Hong Kong newspaper, Ming Pao Daily. My aim to was to create something which was natural and fun - and free of the obligatory lectures about eating vegetables and global warming!
Fred and Rita are college students. Rita needs to work but Fred always wants to talk!

2. The Story of the Beatles is a good starting point for projects and other classroom activities.

New materials for young learners

1. Penguins

2. Nocturnal Animals: this came out of my six-year-old daughter's school project. The subject for her UK SATS exam (!) inspired me to prepare something at elementary level.
3. A similar origin for this page on The Great Pyramid at Giza. There's a ton of stuff about the ancient Egyptians online but surprisingly little at a language level suitable for younger children

New versions of Mary Celeste and The Signalman

Thanks to the wonders of Scribd, I've been able to embed PDFs of some of the most popular materials on the site. There is a new version of The Mary Celeste and slightly revised ones of The Signalman, The Body Snatcher and The Marble Finger.
Many thanks to the visitor who pointed out some major typos etc in the original version of The Marble Finger. Let me know if you spot more - all help appreciated.

Welcome/BBC/Elvis

A very big welcome to you all. This will be the new blog spot for eslreading.org and eslyounglearners and will provide news, views and links to useful new materials to help English language learners. Most of these will be from my sites but I hope to show you some other fun things from across the web.

Been ages since I've posted - was doing BBC blog in December, struggling with the snow (we don't do snow very well in this country) and a hundred other things. Have also done a lot of work reconstructing the site and there's plenty of new stuff to check out here.

Marking the 75th birthday of Elvis with a couple of fun materials: Elvis Lives and Elvis: FBI Agent


If you haven't seen my sites, try the links above. And please get back to me with what you think!